A-League Men predictions

Upcoming matches: our predictions

Fixtures and standings

Fri 23 Oct 10:00

Brisbane Roar

Perth Glory

31%21%48%

Draw or Perth Glory 69% Score 1-1 +2,5 69% BTTS 68%

Sat 24 Oct 05:00

Newcastle Jets

Macarthur FC

25%19%56%

Macarthur FC win 56% Score 1-2 +2,5 75% BTTS 72%

Sat 24 Oct 07:00

Western Sydney Wanderers

Auckland FC

63%22%15%

Western Sydney Wanderers win 63% Score 1-0 +2,5 50% BTTS 46%

Sat 24 Oct 09:40

Melbourne Victory

Melbourne City FC

59%24%17%

Melbourne Victory win 59% Score 1-0 +2,5 46% BTTS 45%

Sun 25 Oct 03:00

Wellington Phoenix FC

Central Coast Mariners

55%20%25%

Wellington Phoenix FC win 55% Score 2-1 +2,5 71% BTTS 68%

Our latest predictions in this competition

Wellington Phoenix FC 2-1 Melbourne Victory · Melbourne Victory win

How our predictions are made

Our predictions come from a statistical model (Poisson distribution) applied to the goals each team scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. No guesswork: probabilities, calculated the same way for every match.

1 / X / 2: probability of a home win, a draw, an away win.
Our pick: the win if it is above 50%, otherwise the most likely double chance.
Correct score: the most likely score (rarely above 15 to 20%).
Locked at kick-off: we never change a prediction once the match has started.

30-day record: 58% of predictions right over 272 matches, 8% correct scores.

21+ A prediction is never a certainty: at 60%, it is wrong 4 times out of 10. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling

FAQ

What is the prediction for Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory?

Probabilities: Brisbane Roar 31%, draw 21%, Perth Glory 48%. Most likely score: 1-1. Over 2.5 goals: 69%. Both teams to score: 68%. Our pick: Draw or Perth Glory.

What are the next A-League Men matches?

Brisbane Roar – Perth Glory (Fri 23 Oct 10:00) ; Newcastle Jets – Macarthur FC (Sat 24 Oct 05:00) ; Western Sydney Wanderers – Auckland FC (Sat 24 Oct 07:00) ; Melbourne Victory – Melbourne City FC (Sat 24 Oct 09:40) ; Wellington Phoenix FC – Central Coast Mariners (Sun 25 Oct 03:00).

How are your predictions calculated?

With a statistical model (Poisson distribution): for each team we use the goals scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. From that we get the probabilities of a win, a draw, every correct score and the number of goals.

What is your success rate?

Over the last 30 days: 58% of 1X2 predictions right (268 matches), 8% correct scores. Every prediction is locked at kick-off: no corrections afterwards.

Are the predictions 100% reliable?

No. A 60% prediction is wrong 4 times out of 10. Never stake more than you can afford to lose; betting is for adults only.