CAF Champions League predictions
Upcoming matches: our predictions
Fixtures and standingsHow our predictions are made
Our predictions come from a statistical model (Poisson distribution) applied to the goals each team scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. No guesswork: probabilities, calculated the same way for every match.
- 1 / X / 2: probability of a home win, a draw, an away win.
- Our pick: the win if it is above 50%, otherwise the most likely double chance.
- Correct score: the most likely score (rarely above 15 to 20%).
- Locked at kick-off: we never change a prediction once the match has started.
30-day record: 64% of predictions right over 69 matches, 7% correct scores.
21+ A prediction is never a certainty: at 60%, it is wrong 4 times out of 10. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
FAQ
What is the prediction for El Merriekh Bentiu vs Pyramids FC?
Probabilities: El Merriekh Bentiu 53%, draw 25%, Pyramids FC 22%. Most likely score: 1-0. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Both teams to score: 51%. Our pick: El Merriekh Bentiu win.
What are the next CAF Champions League matches?
El Merriekh Bentiu – Pyramids FC (Fri 16 Oct 14:30) ; APR FC – Zamalek (Fri 16 Oct 17:00) ; Star Sport Academy – RSB Berkane (Fri 16 Oct 17:00) ; CFFA – Young Africans (Sat 17 Oct 13:00) ; African Stars – Orlando Pirates (Sat 17 Oct 14:00) ; TP Mazembe – Club Africain (Sat 17 Oct 14:00).
How are your predictions calculated?
With a statistical model (Poisson distribution): for each team we use the goals scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. From that we get the probabilities of a win, a draw, every correct score and the number of goals.
What is your success rate?
Over the last 30 days: 64% of 1X2 predictions right (69 matches), 7% correct scores. Every prediction is locked at kick-off: no corrections afterwards.
Are the predictions 100% reliable?
No. A 60% prediction is wrong 4 times out of 10. Never stake more than you can afford to lose; betting is for adults only.