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today's favourites predictions

"today's favourites" predictions: matches in the next 3 days ranked from most to least likely, according to our statistical model. The favourite is the team our model gives the highest chance of winning. A "favourite to win" bet wins if that team wins the match (a draw loses).

77%Barcelona win — Barcelona – Getafe
177%
N14%
29%
+1,587%
+2,569%
+3,547%
BTTS53%
Not both47%
75%Manchester United win — Manchester United – Tottenham Hotspur
175%
N16%
29%
+1,583%
+2,562%
+3,540%
BTTS47%
Not both53%
73%Borussia Dortmund win — Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen
173%
N15%
213%
+1,591%
+2,577%
+3,558%
BTTS65%
Not both35%
72%Bayern Munich win — FC Augsburg – Bayern Munich
114%
N14%
272%
+1,594%
+2,583%
+3,566%
BTTS72%
Not both28%
71%AS Monaco win — AS Monaco – Toulouse
171%
N17%
211%
+1,582%
+2,560%
+3,538%
BTTS50%
Not both50%
70%SV Elversberg win — 1. FC Union Berlin – SV Elversberg
115%
N14%
270%
+1,595%
+2,586%
+3,571%
BTTS76%
Not both24%
70%Lazio win — Lazio – Monza
170%
N16%
214%
+1,591%
+2,576%
+3,556%
BTTS66%
Not both34%
69%Brighton & Hove Albion win — Sunderland – Brighton & Hove Albion
115%
N16%
269%
+1,591%
+2,577%
+3,557%
BTTS67%
Not both33%
69%Fiorentina win — Genoa – Fiorentina
115%
N17%
269%
+1,589%
+2,573%
+3,552%
BTTS64%
Not both36%
67%Internazionale win — Internazionale – Parma
167%
N18%
215%
+1,587%
+2,569%
+3,548%
BTTS61%
Not both39%
66%Real Betis win — Real Betis – Osasuna
166%
N18%
216%
+1,587%
+2,569%
+3,548%
BTTS62%
Not both38%
65%Real Madrid win — Real Madrid – Villarreal
165%
N17%
218%
+1,592%
+2,579%
+3,561%
BTTS72%
Not both28%
65%Paris Saint-Germain win — Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans
165%
N17%
218%
+1,592%
+2,579%
+3,561%
BTTS72%
Not both28%
63%SC Freiburg win — SC Freiburg – Schalke 04
163%
N19%
218%
+1,586%
+2,567%
+3,546%
BTTS62%
Not both38%
62%Brentford win — Aston Villa – Brentford
118%
N20%
262%
+1,582%
+2,560%
+3,538%
BTTS56%
Not both44%
61%TSG Hoffenheim win — TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburg SV
161%
N18%
221%
+1,591%
+2,577%
+3,557%
BTTS71%
Not both29%
59%Lyon win — Lens – Lyon
121%
N21%
259%
+1,583%
+2,563%
+3,541%
BTTS60%
Not both40%
56%FC Cologne win — FC Cologne – Borussia Mönchengladbach
156%
N17%
227%
+1,596%
+2,587%
+3,573%
BTTS82%
Not both18%
55%Arsenal win — Arsenal – Leeds United
155%
N24%
221%
+1,575%
+2,551%
+3,529%
BTTS51%
Not both49%
53%Chelsea win — Chelsea – AFC Bournemouth
153%
N18%
229%
+1,595%
+2,584%
+3,568%
BTTS80%
Not both20%
53%Racing Santander win — Racing Santander – Valencia
153%
N20%
227%
+1,590%
+2,574%
+3,554%
BTTS72%
Not both28%
52%Celta Vigo win — Elche – Celta Vigo
127%
N21%
252%
+1,587%
+2,569%
+3,547%
BTTS67%
Not both33%
50%Stade Rennais win — Stade Rennais – AJ Auxerre
150%
N20%
230%
+1,592%
+2,579%
+3,560%
BTTS76%
Not both24%
47%AS Roma win — Como – AS Roma
130%
N23%
247%
+1,583%
+2,563%
+3,540%
BTTS63%
Not both37%
47%Frosinone win — Napoli – Frosinone
127%
N27%
247%
+1,570%
+2,545%
+3,523%
BTTS49%
Not both51%

How to read this prediction

The bigger the gap in expected goals between the teams, the clearer the favourite.

The grid under each match gives every probability from the model: home win (1), draw (X), away win (2), over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals, and both teams to score (yes / no). Compare them with the odds: odds of 2.00 imply 50%, odds of 1.50 about 67%.

Favourites to win tomorrow · Football predictions tomorrow

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How our predictions are made

Our predictions come from a statistical model (Poisson distribution) applied to the goals each team scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. No guesswork: probabilities, calculated the same way for every match.

  • 1 / X / 2: probability of a home win, a draw, an away win.
  • Our pick: the win if it is above 50%, otherwise the most likely double chance.
  • Correct score: the most likely score (rarely above 15 to 20%).
  • Locked at kick-off: we never change a prediction once the match has started.

Record published after 20 predictions have been played (4 so far), losses included.

21+ A prediction is never a certainty: at 60%, it is wrong 4 times out of 10. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling

FAQ

What are the best "today's favourites" predictions?

According to our model, the most likely are: Barcelona win — Barcelona – Getafe (77 %) ; Manchester United win — Manchester United – Tottenham Hotspur (75 %) ; Borussia Dortmund win — Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen (73 %).

What does "today's favourites" mean?

The favourite is the team our model gives the highest chance of winning. A "favourite to win" bet wins if that team wins the match (a draw loses).

When is this prediction most likely?

The bigger the gap in expected goals between the teams, the clearer the favourite.

How are your predictions calculated?

With a statistical model (Poisson distribution): for each team we use the goals scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. From that we get the probabilities of a win, a draw, every correct score and the number of goals.

What is your success rate?

Our record is published once 20 predictions locked before kick-off have been played. Every prediction is locked at kick-off: no corrections afterwards.

Are the predictions 100% reliable?

No. A 60% prediction is wrong 4 times out of 10. Never stake more than you can afford to lose; betting is for adults only.

Where are you?

Kick-off times, bonuses and payment methods adapt to your country.

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Sports betting is for adults only.