Hull City
Everton
Draw or Everton 72%
Score 0-0
+2,5 21%
BTTS 30%
draw predictions
"draw" predictions: matches in the next 3 days ranked from most to least likely, according to our statistical model. A "draw" bet wins if the match ends level (0-0, 1-1, 2-2…).
35%Draw — Hull City – Everton
Hull City
Everton
129%
N35%
236%
+1,547%
+2,521%
+3,58%
BTTS30%
Not both70%
33%Draw — Cagliari – Juventus
Cagliari
Juventus
Cagliari or draw 69%
Score 0-0
+2,5 26%
BTTS 34%
136%
N33%
231%
+1,553%
+2,526%
+3,510%
BTTS34%
Not both66%
29%Draw — Lecce – Bologna
Lecce
Bologna
Lecce or draw 67%
Score 1-1
+2,5 39%
BTTS 46%
138%
N29%
233%
+1,566%
+2,539%
+3,519%
BTTS46%
Not both54%
28%Draw — Lorient – Paris FC
Lorient
Paris FC
Draw or Paris FC 70%
Score 1-1
+2,5 40%
BTTS 46%
130%
N28%
242%
+1,566%
+2,540%
+3,519%
BTTS46%
Not both54%
28%Draw — Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Draw or Nottingham Forest 65%
Score 1-1
+2,5 41%
BTTS 47%
135%
N28%
237%
+1,568%
+2,541%
+3,521%
BTTS47%
Not both53%
28%Draw — Málaga – Espanyol
Málaga
Espanyol
Draw or Espanyol 72%
Score 1-1
+2,5 42%
BTTS 47%
128%
N28%
244%
+1,568%
+2,542%
+3,521%
BTTS47%
Not both53%
27%Draw — Napoli – Frosinone
Napoli
Frosinone
Draw or Frosinone 73%
Score 1-1
+2,5 45%
BTTS 49%
127%
N27%
247%
+1,570%
+2,545%
+3,523%
BTTS49%
Not both51%
26%Draw — Brest – Angers
Brest
Angers
Draw or Angers 63%
Score 1-1
+2,5 51%
BTTS 56%
137%
N26%
237%
+1,576%
+2,551%
+3,529%
BTTS55%
Not both45%
26%Draw — Liverpool – Manchester City
Liverpool
Manchester City
Draw or Manchester City 69%
Score 1-1
+2,5 51%
BTTS 54%
131%
N26%
244%
+1,575%
+2,551%
+3,529%
BTTS54%
Not both46%
25%Draw — Alavés – Atlético Madrid
Alavés
Atlético Madrid
Draw or Atlético Madrid 65%
Score 1-1
+2,5 54%
BTTS 57%
135%
N25%
240%
+1,578%
+2,554%
+3,532%
BTTS57%
Not both43%
25%Draw — Nice – Strasbourg
Nice
Strasbourg
Draw or Strasbourg 68%
Score 1-1
+2,5 54%
BTTS 57%
132%
N25%
243%
+1,577%
+2,554%
+3,531%
BTTS57%
Not both43%
25%Draw — SC Paderborn 07 – VfB Stuttgart
SC Paderborn 07
VfB Stuttgart
Draw or VfB Stuttgart 69%
Score 1-1
+2,5 55%
BTTS 58%
131%
N25%
244%
+1,578%
+2,555%
+3,533%
BTTS58%
Not both42%
24%Draw — Troyes – Marseille
Troyes
Marseille
Draw or Marseille 68%
Score 1-1
+2,5 57%
BTTS 59%
132%
N24%
244%
+1,580%
+2,557%
+3,535%
BTTS59%
Not both41%
24%Draw — Arsenal – Leeds United
Arsenal
Leeds United
Arsenal win 55%
Score 1-0
+2,5 51%
BTTS 51%
155%
N24%
221%
+1,575%
+2,551%
+3,529%
BTTS51%
Not both49%
24%Draw — Lille – Le Havre AC
Lille
Le Havre AC
Lille or draw 70%
Score 1-1
+2,5 59%
BTTS 61%
147%
N24%
230%
+1,581%
+2,559%
+3,537%
BTTS61%
Not both39%
23%Draw — Sassuolo – AC Milan
Sassuolo
AC Milan
Draw or AC Milan 67%
Score 1-1
+2,5 61%
BTTS 63%
133%
N23%
244%
+1,582%
+2,561%
+3,539%
BTTS63%
Not both37%
23%Draw — Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
Draw or Athletic Club 68%
Score 1-1
+2,5 61%
BTTS 63%
133%
N23%
244%
+1,582%
+2,561%
+3,539%
BTTS63%
Not both37%
23%Draw — Como – AS Roma
Como
AS Roma
Draw or AS Roma 70%
Score 1-1
+2,5 63%
BTTS 63%
130%
N23%
247%
+1,583%
+2,563%
+3,540%
BTTS63%
Not both37%
23%Draw — Real Sociedad – Deportivo
Real Sociedad
Deportivo
Draw or Deportivo 68%
Score 1-1
+2,5 64%
BTTS 65%
132%
N23%
246%
+1,584%
+2,564%
+3,542%
BTTS65%
Not both35%
21%Draw — Mainz – Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz
Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz or draw 65%
Score 2-1
+2,5 72%
BTTS 72%
144%
N21%
235%
+1,589%
+2,572%
+3,552%
BTTS72%
Not both28%
21%Draw — Ipswich Town – Fulham
Ipswich Town
Fulham
Draw or Fulham 63%
Score 1-1
+2,5 74%
BTTS 73%
137%
N21%
241%
+1,590%
+2,574%
+3,554%
BTTS73%
Not both27%
21%Draw — Elche – Celta Vigo
Elche
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo win 52%
Score 1-2
+2,5 68%
BTTS 67%
127%
N21%
252%
+1,587%
+2,569%
+3,547%
BTTS67%
Not both33%
21%Draw — Lens – Lyon
Lens
Lyon
Lyon win 59%
Score 1-2
+2,5 63%
BTTS 60%
121%
N21%
259%
+1,583%
+2,563%
+3,541%
BTTS60%
Not both40%
20%Draw — Aston Villa – Brentford
Aston Villa
Brentford
Brentford win 62%
Score 1-2
+2,5 60%
BTTS 56%
118%
N20%
262%
+1,582%
+2,560%
+3,538%
BTTS56%
Not both44%
20%Draw — Racing Santander – Valencia
Racing Santander
Valencia
Racing Santander win 53%
Score 2-1
+2,5 74%
BTTS 72%
153%
N20%
227%
+1,590%
+2,574%
+3,554%
BTTS72%
Not both28%
How to read this prediction
Two evenly matched teams and low-scoring games: the fewer the expected goals, the likelier the draw.
The grid under each match gives every probability from the model: home win (1), draw (X), away win (2), over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals, and both teams to score (yes / no). Compare them with the odds: odds of 2.00 imply 50%, odds of 1.50 about 67%.
Other markets
How our predictions are made
Our predictions come from a statistical model (Poisson distribution) applied to the goals each team scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. No guesswork: probabilities, calculated the same way for every match.
- 1 / X / 2: probability of a home win, a draw, an away win.
- Our pick: the win if it is above 50%, otherwise the most likely double chance.
- Correct score: the most likely score (rarely above 15 to 20%).
- Locked at kick-off: we never change a prediction once the match has started.
Record published after 20 predictions have been played (4 so far), losses included.
21+ A prediction is never a certainty: at 60%, it is wrong 4 times out of 10. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
FAQ
What are the best "draw" predictions?
According to our model, the most likely are: Draw — Hull City – Everton (35 %) ; Draw — Cagliari – Juventus (33 %) ; Draw — Lecce – Bologna (29 %).
What does "draw" mean?
A "draw" bet wins if the match ends level (0-0, 1-1, 2-2…).
When is this prediction most likely?
Two evenly matched teams and low-scoring games: the fewer the expected goals, the likelier the draw.
How are your predictions calculated?
With a statistical model (Poisson distribution): for each team we use the goals scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. From that we get the probabilities of a win, a draw, every correct score and the number of goals.
What is your success rate?
Our record is published once 20 predictions locked before kick-off have been played. Every prediction is locked at kick-off: no corrections afterwards.
Are the predictions 100% reliable?
No. A 60% prediction is wrong 4 times out of 10. Never stake more than you can afford to lose; betting is for adults only.