Hull City
Everton
Draw or Everton 72%
Score 0-0
+2,5 21%
BTTS 30%
under 3.5 goals predictions
"under 3.5 goals" predictions: matches in the next 3 days ranked from most to least likely, according to our statistical model. The bet wins if the match has 3 goals or fewer (0-0 to 2-1, 3-0).
92%Under 3.5 goals — Hull City – Everton
Hull City
Everton
129%
N35%
236%
+1,547%
+2,521%
+3,58%
BTTS30%
Not both70%
90%Under 3.5 goals — Cagliari – Juventus
Cagliari
Juventus
Cagliari or draw 69%
Score 0-0
+2,5 26%
BTTS 34%
136%
N33%
231%
+1,553%
+2,526%
+3,510%
BTTS34%
Not both66%
81%Under 3.5 goals — Lecce – Bologna
Lecce
Bologna
Lecce or draw 67%
Score 1-1
+2,5 39%
BTTS 46%
138%
N29%
233%
+1,566%
+2,539%
+3,519%
BTTS46%
Not both54%
81%Under 3.5 goals — Lorient – Paris FC
Lorient
Paris FC
Draw or Paris FC 70%
Score 1-1
+2,5 40%
BTTS 46%
130%
N28%
242%
+1,566%
+2,540%
+3,519%
BTTS46%
Not both54%
79%Under 3.5 goals — Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Draw or Nottingham Forest 65%
Score 1-1
+2,5 41%
BTTS 47%
135%
N28%
237%
+1,568%
+2,541%
+3,521%
BTTS47%
Not both53%
79%Under 3.5 goals — Málaga – Espanyol
Málaga
Espanyol
Draw or Espanyol 72%
Score 1-1
+2,5 42%
BTTS 47%
128%
N28%
244%
+1,568%
+2,542%
+3,521%
BTTS47%
Not both53%
77%Under 3.5 goals — Napoli – Frosinone
Napoli
Frosinone
Draw or Frosinone 73%
Score 1-1
+2,5 45%
BTTS 49%
127%
N27%
247%
+1,570%
+2,545%
+3,523%
BTTS49%
Not both51%
71%Under 3.5 goals — Liverpool – Manchester City
Liverpool
Manchester City
Draw or Manchester City 69%
Score 1-1
+2,5 51%
BTTS 54%
131%
N26%
244%
+1,575%
+2,551%
+3,529%
BTTS54%
Not both46%
71%Under 3.5 goals — Arsenal – Leeds United
Arsenal
Leeds United
Arsenal win 55%
Score 1-0
+2,5 51%
BTTS 51%
155%
N24%
221%
+1,575%
+2,551%
+3,529%
BTTS51%
Not both49%
71%Under 3.5 goals — Brest – Angers
Brest
Angers
Draw or Angers 63%
Score 1-1
+2,5 51%
BTTS 56%
137%
N26%
237%
+1,576%
+2,551%
+3,529%
BTTS55%
Not both45%
69%Under 3.5 goals — Nice – Strasbourg
Nice
Strasbourg
Draw or Strasbourg 68%
Score 1-1
+2,5 54%
BTTS 57%
132%
N25%
243%
+1,577%
+2,554%
+3,531%
BTTS57%
Not both43%
68%Under 3.5 goals — Alavés – Atlético Madrid
Alavés
Atlético Madrid
Draw or Atlético Madrid 65%
Score 1-1
+2,5 54%
BTTS 57%
135%
N25%
240%
+1,578%
+2,554%
+3,532%
BTTS57%
Not both43%
67%Under 3.5 goals — SC Paderborn 07 – VfB Stuttgart
SC Paderborn 07
VfB Stuttgart
Draw or VfB Stuttgart 69%
Score 1-1
+2,5 55%
BTTS 58%
131%
N25%
244%
+1,578%
+2,555%
+3,533%
BTTS58%
Not both42%
65%Under 3.5 goals — Troyes – Marseille
Troyes
Marseille
Draw or Marseille 68%
Score 1-1
+2,5 57%
BTTS 59%
132%
N24%
244%
+1,580%
+2,557%
+3,535%
BTTS59%
Not both41%
63%Under 3.5 goals — Lille – Le Havre AC
Lille
Le Havre AC
Lille or draw 70%
Score 1-1
+2,5 59%
BTTS 61%
147%
N24%
230%
+1,581%
+2,559%
+3,537%
BTTS61%
Not both39%
62%Under 3.5 goals — AS Monaco – Toulouse
AS Monaco
Toulouse
AS Monaco win 71%
Score 2-0
+2,5 60%
BTTS 49%
171%
N17%
211%
+1,582%
+2,560%
+3,538%
BTTS50%
Not both50%
62%Under 3.5 goals — Aston Villa – Brentford
Aston Villa
Brentford
Brentford win 62%
Score 1-2
+2,5 60%
BTTS 56%
118%
N20%
262%
+1,582%
+2,560%
+3,538%
BTTS56%
Not both44%
61%Under 3.5 goals — Sassuolo – AC Milan
Sassuolo
AC Milan
Draw or AC Milan 67%
Score 1-1
+2,5 61%
BTTS 63%
133%
N23%
244%
+1,582%
+2,561%
+3,539%
BTTS63%
Not both37%
61%Under 3.5 goals — Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
Draw or Athletic Club 68%
Score 1-1
+2,5 61%
BTTS 63%
133%
N23%
244%
+1,582%
+2,561%
+3,539%
BTTS63%
Not both37%
60%Under 3.5 goals — Manchester United – Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United win 75%
Score 2-0
+2,5 62%
BTTS 48%
175%
N16%
29%
+1,583%
+2,562%
+3,540%
BTTS47%
Not both53%
60%Under 3.5 goals — Como – AS Roma
Como
AS Roma
Draw or AS Roma 70%
Score 1-1
+2,5 63%
BTTS 63%
130%
N23%
247%
+1,583%
+2,563%
+3,540%
BTTS63%
Not both37%
59%Under 3.5 goals — Lens – Lyon
Lens
Lyon
Lyon win 59%
Score 1-2
+2,5 63%
BTTS 60%
121%
N21%
259%
+1,583%
+2,563%
+3,541%
BTTS60%
Not both40%
58%Under 3.5 goals — Real Sociedad – Deportivo
Real Sociedad
Deportivo
Draw or Deportivo 68%
Score 1-1
+2,5 64%
BTTS 65%
132%
N23%
246%
+1,584%
+2,564%
+3,542%
BTTS65%
Not both35%
54%Under 3.5 goals — SC Freiburg – Schalke 04
SC Freiburg
Schalke 04
SC Freiburg win 63%
Score 2-1
+2,5 67%
BTTS 62%
163%
N19%
218%
+1,586%
+2,567%
+3,546%
BTTS62%
Not both38%
53%Under 3.5 goals — Elche – Celta Vigo
Elche
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo win 52%
Score 1-2
+2,5 68%
BTTS 67%
127%
N21%
252%
+1,587%
+2,569%
+3,547%
BTTS67%
Not both33%
How to read this prediction
Most matches end with 3 goals or fewer: it's a cautious bet, with low odds.
The grid under each match gives every probability from the model: home win (1), draw (X), away win (2), over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals, and both teams to score (yes / no). Compare them with the odds: odds of 2.00 imply 50%, odds of 1.50 about 67%.
Other markets
How our predictions are made
Our predictions come from a statistical model (Poisson distribution) applied to the goals each team scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. No guesswork: probabilities, calculated the same way for every match.
- 1 / X / 2: probability of a home win, a draw, an away win.
- Our pick: the win if it is above 50%, otherwise the most likely double chance.
- Correct score: the most likely score (rarely above 15 to 20%).
- Locked at kick-off: we never change a prediction once the match has started.
Record published after 20 predictions have been played (4 so far), losses included.
21+ A prediction is never a certainty: at 60%, it is wrong 4 times out of 10. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
FAQ
What are the best "under 3.5 goals" predictions?
According to our model, the most likely are: Under 3.5 goals — Hull City – Everton (92 %) ; Under 3.5 goals — Cagliari – Juventus (90 %) ; Under 3.5 goals — Lecce – Bologna (81 %).
What does "under 3.5 goals" mean?
The bet wins if the match has 3 goals or fewer (0-0 to 2-1, 3-0).
When is this prediction most likely?
Most matches end with 3 goals or fewer: it's a cautious bet, with low odds.
How are your predictions calculated?
With a statistical model (Poisson distribution): for each team we use the goals scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. From that we get the probabilities of a win, a draw, every correct score and the number of goals.
What is your success rate?
Our record is published once 20 predictions locked before kick-off have been played. Every prediction is locked at kick-off: no corrections afterwards.
Are the predictions 100% reliable?
No. A 60% prediction is wrong 4 times out of 10. Never stake more than you can afford to lose; betting is for adults only.