Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund win 73%
Score 2-1
+2,5 77%
BTTS 65%
Favourites to win tomorrow
Favourites to win tomorrow: all of tomorrow's matches ranked by the favourite's chances of winning, computed by our model. The ranking is recalculated every hour until kick-off. The favourite is the team our model gives the highest chance of winning. A "favourite to win" bet wins if that team wins the match (a draw loses).
73%Borussia Dortmund win — Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
173%
N15%
213%
+1,591%
+2,577%
+3,558%
BTTS65%
Not both35%
59%Lyon win — Lens – Lyon
Lens
Lyon
Lyon win 59%
Score 1-2
+2,5 63%
BTTS 60%
121%
N21%
259%
+1,583%
+2,563%
+3,541%
BTTS60%
Not both40%
44%Espanyol win — Málaga – Espanyol
Málaga
Espanyol
Draw or Espanyol 72%
Score 1-1
+2,5 42%
BTTS 47%
128%
N28%
244%
+1,568%
+2,542%
+3,521%
BTTS47%
Not both53%
How to read this prediction
The bigger the gap in expected goals between the teams, the clearer the favourite.
The grid under each match gives every probability from the model: home win (1), draw (X), away win (2), over 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 goals, and both teams to score (yes / no). Compare them with the odds: odds of 2.00 imply 50%, odds of 1.50 about 67%.
Today's favourites (today and the next few days) · Football predictions tomorrow
Other markets
How our predictions are made
Our predictions come from a statistical model (Poisson distribution) applied to the goals each team scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. No guesswork: probabilities, calculated the same way for every match.
- 1 / X / 2: probability of a home win, a draw, an away win.
- Our pick: the win if it is above 50%, otherwise the most likely double chance.
- Correct score: the most likely score (rarely above 15 to 20%).
- Locked at kick-off: we never change a prediction once the match has started.
Record published after 20 predictions have been played (4 so far), losses included.
21+ A prediction is never a certainty: at 60%, it is wrong 4 times out of 10. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
FAQ
What are the best "today's favourites" predictions?
According to our model, the most likely are: Borussia Dortmund win — Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen (73 %) ; Lyon win — Lens – Lyon (59 %) ; Espanyol win — Málaga – Espanyol (44 %).
What does "today's favourites" mean?
The favourite is the team our model gives the highest chance of winning. A "favourite to win" bet wins if that team wins the match (a draw loses).
When is this prediction most likely?
The bigger the gap in expected goals between the teams, the clearer the favourite.
How are your predictions calculated?
With a statistical model (Poisson distribution): for each team we use the goals scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. From that we get the probabilities of a win, a draw, every correct score and the number of goals.
What is your success rate?
Our record is published once 20 predictions locked before kick-off have been played. Every prediction is locked at kick-off: no corrections afterwards.
Are the predictions 100% reliable?
No. A 60% prediction is wrong 4 times out of 10. Never stake more than you can afford to lose; betting is for adults only.