Liga MX predictions
Upcoming matches: our predictions
Fixtures and standingsTeams: scores, results and predictions
How our predictions are made
Our predictions come from a statistical model (Poisson distribution) applied to the goals each team scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. No guesswork: probabilities, calculated the same way for every match.
- 1 / X / 2: probability of a home win, a draw, an away win.
- Our pick: the win if it is above 50%, otherwise the most likely double chance.
- Correct score: the most likely score (rarely above 15 to 20%).
- Locked at kick-off: we never change a prediction once the match has started.
30-day record: 57% of predictions right over 129 matches, 6% correct scores.
21+ A prediction is never a certainty: at 60%, it is wrong 4 times out of 10. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
FAQ
What is the prediction for Necaxa vs Atlas?
Probabilities: Necaxa 39%, draw 20%, Atlas 41%. Most likely score: 2-2. Over 2.5 goals: 80%. Both teams to score: 78%. Our pick: Draw or Atlas.
What are the next Liga MX matches?
Necaxa – Atlas (Tomorrow 02:00) ; Atlante – Pumas UNAM (Tomorrow 04:00) ; Tijuana – Puebla (Tomorrow 04:00) ; Santos – Querétaro (Sun 18 Oct 00:00) ; Guadalajara – Tigres UANL (Sun 18 Oct 00:07) ; León – América (Sun 18 Oct 02:00).
How are your predictions calculated?
With a statistical model (Poisson distribution): for each team we use the goals scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. From that we get the probabilities of a win, a draw, every correct score and the number of goals.
What is your success rate?
Over the last 30 days: 57% of 1X2 predictions right (129 matches), 6% correct scores. Every prediction is locked at kick-off: no corrections afterwards.
Are the predictions 100% reliable?
No. A 60% prediction is wrong 4 times out of 10. Never stake more than you can afford to lose; betting is for adults only.