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MLS predictions

Upcoming matches: our predictions

Fixtures and standings

Our latest predictions in this competition

How our predictions are made

Our predictions come from a statistical model (Poisson distribution) applied to the goals each team scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. No guesswork: probabilities, calculated the same way for every match.

  • 1 / X / 2: probability of a home win, a draw, an away win.
  • Our pick: the win if it is above 50%, otherwise the most likely double chance.
  • Correct score: the most likely score (rarely above 15 to 20%).
  • Locked at kick-off: we never change a prediction once the match has started.

30-day record: 59% of predictions right over 58 matches, 7% correct scores.

21+ A prediction is never a certainty: at 60%, it is wrong 4 times out of 10. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling

FAQ

What is the prediction for CF Montréal vs Atlanta United FC?

Probabilities: CF Montréal 34%, draw 25%, Atlanta United FC 41%. Most likely score: 1-1. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Both teams to score: 56%. Our pick: Draw or Atlanta United FC.

What are the next MLS matches?

CF Montréal – Atlanta United FC (Thu 15 Oct 00:30) ; Columbus Crew – Charlotte FC (Thu 15 Oct 00:30) ; D.C. United – Red Bull New York (Thu 15 Oct 00:30) ; FC Cincinnati – New England Revolution (Thu 15 Oct 00:30) ; Inter Miami CF – New York City FC (Thu 15 Oct 00:30) ; Toronto FC – Orlando City SC (Thu 15 Oct 00:30).

How are your predictions calculated?

With a statistical model (Poisson distribution): for each team we use the goals scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. From that we get the probabilities of a win, a draw, every correct score and the number of goals.

What is your success rate?

Over the last 30 days: 59% of 1X2 predictions right (58 matches), 7% correct scores. Every prediction is locked at kick-off: no corrections afterwards.

Are the predictions 100% reliable?

No. A 60% prediction is wrong 4 times out of 10. Never stake more than you can afford to lose; betting is for adults only.

Where are you?

Kick-off times, bonuses and payment methods adapt to your country.

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