Liga F (Spain) predictions

Upcoming matches: our predictions

Fixtures and standings

Fri 23 Oct 18:30

Atlético Madrid

Valencia

72%17%11%

Atlético Madrid win 72% Score 2-0 +2.5 63% BTTS 51%

Sat 24 Oct 11:00

Athletic Club

Sevilla

58%21%21%

Athletic Club win 58% Score 2-1 +2.5 64% BTTS 61%

Sat 24 Oct 11:00

Real Sociedad

Espanyol

47%23%30%

Real Sociedad or draw 70% Score 1-1 +2.5 61% BTTS 62%

Sat 24 Oct 15:00

Real Madrid

CD Tenerife

27%18%55%

CD Tenerife win 55% Score 1-2 +2.5 82% BTTS 78%

Sat 24 Oct 17:15

Dux Logroño

FC Badalona

37%24%39%

Draw or FC Badalona 63% Score 1-1 +2.5 60% BTTS 62%

Sat 24 Oct 19:30

Barcelona

Granada

89%8%3%

Barcelona win 89% Score 3-0 +2.5 79% BTTS 45%

Sun 25 Oct 12:45

Deportivo

Alavés

66%22%12%

Deportivo win 66% Score 1-0 +2.5 41% BTTS 36%

Sun 25 Oct 17:00

Eibar

Madrid CFF

45%26%29%

Eibar or draw 71% Score 1-1 +2.5 49% BTTS 53%

Our latest predictions in this competition

Atlético Madrid 4-0 Madrid CFF · Atlético Madrid or draw

How our predictions are made

Our predictions come from a statistical model (Poisson distribution) applied to the goals each team scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. No guesswork: probabilities, calculated the same way for every match.

1 / X / 2: probability of a home win, a draw, an away win.
Our pick: the win if it is above 50%, otherwise the most likely double chance.
Correct score: the most likely score (rarely above 15 to 20%).
Locked at kick-off: we never change a prediction once the match has started.

30-day record: 59% of predictions right over 289 matches, 8% correct scores.

21+ A prediction is never a certainty: at 60%, it is wrong 4 times out of 10. Only stake what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling

FAQ

What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Valencia?

Probabilities: Atlético Madrid 72%, draw 17%, Valencia 11%. Most likely score: 2-0. Over 2.5 goals: 63%. Both teams to score: 51%. Our pick: Atlético Madrid win.

What are the next Liga F (Spain) matches?

Atlético Madrid – Valencia (Fri 23 Oct 18:30) ; Athletic Club – Sevilla (Sat 24 Oct 11:00) ; Real Sociedad – Espanyol (Sat 24 Oct 11:00) ; Real Madrid – CD Tenerife (Sat 24 Oct 15:00) ; Dux Logroño – FC Badalona (Sat 24 Oct 17:15) ; Barcelona – Granada (Sat 24 Oct 19:30).

How are your predictions calculated?

With a statistical model (Poisson distribution): for each team we use the goals scored and conceded in its last 6 matches, smoothed towards the average when the history is short, with a small home advantage. From that we get the probabilities of a win, a draw, every correct score and the number of goals.

What is your success rate?

Over the last 30 days: 59% of 1X2 predictions right (289 matches), 8% correct scores. Every prediction is locked at kick-off: no corrections afterwards.

Are the predictions 100% reliable?

No. A 60% prediction is wrong 4 times out of 10. Never stake more than you can afford to lose; betting is for adults only.