Champions League results: Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal, PSG 4-2 Barcelona, Man City 5-1 AEK, Napoli 4-3 Bodø/Glimt

Forty goals in nine Champions League games on Tuesday night. Our model got five of its nine tips right.

UEFA Champions League · 4–3 Liverpool vs Villarreal

Liverpool40 % Draw24 % Villarreal36 %

Over 2.5 goals 58 % Both teams score 61 %

Our prediction : Liverpool or draw · correct

Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal

Villarreal led 2-0 after half an hour through Georges Mikautadze (4') and Sergi Cardona (29'). Liverpool hit back with Alexis Mac Allister (36'), Ronald Araújo (45'+2), Mac Allister again (65') and Florian Wirtz (68'), with two assists from young Rio Ngumoha. Tani Oluwaseyi made it 4-3 late on. Tip "Liverpool or draw": correct. Match centre.

Goals minute by minute

What our model predicted

40%Liverpool 24%Draw 36%Villarreal

Expected goals

Liverpool1.6

Villarreal1.5

Most likely scores

1-111%2-19%1-28%

Over 2.5 goals

Both teams score

Our prediction « Liverpool or draw » : won

Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético Madrid

Jamie Leweling scored for Stuttgart (36'), Julián Álvarez equalised from Ademola Lookman's pass (47'), and Morten Hjulmand was sent off (64'). Our model backed Atlético: wrong. Match centre.

The other results

• PSG 4-2 Barcelona: Doué, Lucas Hernández, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz; Xavi Espart and Lamine Yamal for Barça. Report. Tip correct.
• Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens: Phil Foden hat-trick, Anderson, Cherki. Report. Tip correct.
• Napoli 4-3 Bodø/Glimt: Politano, McTominay (2) and an own goal; Hauge, Helmersen and Fet for Bodø. Tip correct.
• Roma 4-0 Slovan Bratislava: Hermoso, Molina, Pisilli, Malen (pen). Tip correct.
• Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia Prague: Oğuz Aydın and Mason Greenwood; Provod and a 90th-minute equaliser from Pavel Kačor. Tip wrong.
• Sabah 1-2 Borussia Dortmund: Serhou Guirassy scored twice. Tip wrong.
• Porto 0-1 PSV: Guus Til (57'). Tip wrong.